Yemen conflict ‘no longer internal issue’

Mohammed al Qadhi, Foreign Correspondent

• Last Updated: October 22. 2009 1:28AM UAE / October 21. 2009 9:28PM GMT

Yemeni soldiers hold AK-47 magazines and a dagger seized from rebels in the northern province of Sa’ada. Reuters

SANA’A // The international community needs to take a coherent and concerted approach towards Yemen’s unfolding conflict, political analysts and researchers say. With no end in sight as the latest round in the fierce battle between the army and al Houthi rebels enters its third month, the stability of Yemen and the region is at risk, they say.

“The international community is acting too slowly … the problem is that many countries and organisations are paying lip service to the problem of Yemen, but they are not talking to each other to create a coherent approach to deal with [it]. And more importantly, no country or any other actor has taken the lead and without such leadership, a coherent international approach will not come to realisation,” Abdulghani al Iryani, an independent political analyst, said.

Mr al Iryani said Yemen was a dysfunctional state that had chronically failed to deliver services expected of it, such as the rule of law, and that it was heading towards economic failure that would lead to chaos.

Sana’a has been a hub for Arab and western diplomacy over the past two weeks that demonstrates a growing concern over the escalating instability.

Besides the rebellion in its north, the impoverished state on the Arabian peninsula is also embroiled in a growing secessionist movement in the south and under the stress of al Qa’eda as well as depleting oil and water resources.

Gregory Johnsen, a researcher specialising in Yemeni politics at Princeton University in the United States, said the instability in Yemen had allowed al Qa’eda to operate freely and strengthen its presence in the country.

“Both the war in Sa’ada and the unrest pose a threat to Yemen’s internal stability and by extension to that of neighbouring states. I think the US and the EU worry that instability in Yemen will allow a resurgent al Qa’eda the space to plan and launch attacks. These fears appear to be well placed, as al Qa’eda is now stronger than it has ever been before in the country, with a capacity that is growing to meet its ambition,” Mr Johnsen said. He cited the example of the attempted suicide attack on Prince Mohammed bin Naif, the Saudi assistant interior minister, which was apparently plotted in Yemen.

Mr Johnsen, however, said that he believed that al Qa’eda was not the only threat.

“As stability in Yemen continues to disintegrate over the coming years, problems will multiply and exacerbate each other in ways that we can’t completely predict right now,” he said.

The conflict between the rebels and the government, fought intermittently since 2004, has grown in complexity, involving tribal sheikhs, radical anti-Shiite Salafists, weapons traders and drug traffickers.

“What was once a three-sided conflict between the government, its Salafist allies and the Houthis has become much more complex. Now, tribesmen and other interest groups have been brought into the fighting on the side of the Houthis not out of any adherence to Zaidi theology or doctrine but rather as a response to government overreaching and military mistakes. In effect, after five rounds of fighting, the government’s various military campaigns have created more enemies than it had when the conflict began,” Mr Johnsen said.

Ali Abdullah Saleh, the president, said in a ceremony on Wednesday that government forces would crush the rebels “in the next few days”. However, he said last month his government was ready to fight for years if need be.

“The Yemeni government has tried and failed numerous times to bomb the Houthis into submission and its continued failures have only emboldened calls for secession in the south. Neither side has the political capital to yield to the demands of the other, and members of both sides are benefiting financially from a thriving war economy,” Mr Johnsen said.

A minority in mainly Sunni Yemen, the Zaidis for centuries formed the ruling elite in their mountain heartlands; Mr Saleh is himself a Zaidi.

The conflict has also invited meddling by regional powers Iran and Saudi Arabia. The government accuses rebels of seeking to restore the imamate overthrown by the 1962 revolution as well as of being supported by parties in Iran. Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran’s foreign minister, is scheduled to visit Yemen next week.

Al Houthis for their part accuse the Saudis of supporting the government.

Such regional involvement in the conflict makes the situation more complicated, according to Mohammed al Sabri, a leading member of the Joint Meeting Parties, an opposition coalition of six parties.

“The warring parties in particular should realise the conflict is no longer an internal issue, but has become a part of the game of rival regional forces, and further complicates the problem. At the same time, these regional forces should understand that Yemen with its sophisticated geographical and tribal structure might become, if violence escalates further, more difficult to deal with and handle,” Mr al Sabri warned.

“The regional and international forces would make a grave mistake if they think what is happening in Sa’ada is a sectarian conflict. It is rather a symptom of the state failure and its institutions where security solutions become fruitless,” Mr al Sabri said.

malqadhi@thenational.ae