US visa for North Korean raises hopes for talks

Sunny Lee, Foreign Correspondent

• Last Updated: October 18. 2009 11:00PM UAE / October 18. 2009 7:00PM GMT

BEIJING // The US state department’s approval of a visa for a senior North Korean diplomat to attend a security forum in California comes amid widespread speculation of impending bilateral negotiations between the United States and North Korea.

An official at North Korea’s United Nations mission in New York reported Friday’s visa approval to the Associated Press news agency. Analysts say that by finally granting the visa to Ri Gun, the director general of American affairs at North Korea’s foreign ministry, the United States has decided to investigate the North’s true intentions in its commitment to denuclearisation, while Pyongyang will also use the opportunity to gauge whether Washington is ready to offer a full security guarantee and economic incentives in return for the suspension of its nuclear activities.

Mr Ri, who is also North Korea’s deputy nuclear negotiator at the stalled six-nation talks, has been invited to an academic seminar in San Diego on October 26, titled the Northeast Asia Co-operation Dialogue, organised by the University of California at San Diego.

Interestingly, when issuing the visa to Mr Ri, the US state department also approved New York as a city he can visit. The US and North Korea do not have official diplomatic relations, and when North Korean officials visit the US, the state department limits cities where they can stay.

Observers read Mr Ri’s extended itinerary as an indication that his visit will serve as a prelude to direct talks and will be an occasion for the two sides to size the other’s intentions as they are likely to work out logistical details of the upcoming talks. But not all analysts are optimistic about the bilateral meeting’s prospects.

“The fact that Ri Gun visits the US does not automatically [lead to] a natural conclusion that things will make big progress from here. This kind of visit has happened before,” Rhee Bong-jo, a former South Korean vice minister of unification, the country’s main arm in charge of North Korean affairs, said.

North Korea and the US have contrasting goals for the bilateral talks. For Washington, the potential meeting is primarily an inducement to lure Pyongyang back to the six-party negotiation table. “So, the US doesn’t want to put many agendas on the bilateral table. They want to settle the main issues at the six-party table,” said Lu Chao, a Chinese expert on North Korea at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences.

Washington is understood to prefer the six-party approach because it shares out the economic responsibility of any potential economic aid for Pyongyang among different countries.

For North Korea, however, direct talks are its preferred venue for resolving the long-standing nuclear dispute because the multilateral negotiations were time consuming and made little progress.

“For North Korea, the bilateral negotiation is separate and much more important than the six-party talks. When the bilateral negotiation goes well, it may consider returning to the six-party talks. That’s North Korea’s basic position,” Mr Rhee said.

Aside from deciding the agenda for the meeting, analysts say the two have other issues to agree upon during Mr Ri’s visit. The US demands that North Korea give up its nuclear programme, which it sees as a direct threat to US allies South Korea and Japan. For its part, North Korea sees the necessity of its nuclear programme as the direct outcome of Washington’s “hostile policy” towards it.

Mr Rhee said North Korea is willing to concede to the US demand of returning to the six-party talks if Washington first concedes to the North’s demand of offering a full security guarantee. Such a guarantee is widely regarded to mean a peace treaty to officially end the Korean War which was only paused with an armistice in July 1953.

“Unless the US compromises on the ‘content’, North Korea will not likely compromise on the ‘format’,” said Mr Rhee, indicating that this issue is the primary sticking point.

Last week, an article in the North’s official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said: “A peace treaty with the US is a rational and implementable way to settle the peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, to transform the current armistice state into a peace state, and to denuclearise the Korean Peninsula.”

Overall, some observers play down the significance of the meeting, saying Mr Ri is a senior official, but one who is not allowed to make decisions on his own.

Mr Lu disagrees: “Ri Gun is one of the primary North Korean experts on American affairs in North Korea. I think the North Korean leadership will give him more [freedom] to make decisions this time. So I am optimistic about [the outcome of his visit]. This, at least, will be an important first step.”

Hahm Chai-bong, an expert on North Korean affairs at the Rand Corporation, a policy think-tank based in California, is also cautiously optimistic.

“Yes, Ri Gun is not high enough to make decisions for settlements. But he has actually received a visa on an official capacity. The symbolism is quite clear here. That, itself, I think is a very significant development. It’s a clear indication that both sides are now seriously willing to move towards bilateral discussions,” he said.

Washington last month announced a shift of policy and said it would be willing to sit one-on-one with North Korea to resolve the stalled nuclear negotiations. However, it has not been in a hurry to work out the details of any future talks, characterising them largely as a “possibility” and to woo the North back to the multilateral table.

The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, last week said: “We’re looking to restart the six-party process. We may use some bilateral discussions to help get that process going.”

US officials have also said they have not yet made a decision on a possible visit to Pyongyang by Stephen Bosworth, Mr Obama’s special representative for North Korea policy.

On Sunday, citing unnamed US officials involved in North Korean affairs, Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper said the Obama administration wants the bilateral talks to be held in a third country – neither the US nor North Korea – with Mr Bosworth as chief US negotiator and Kang Sok Ju, North Korea’s first vice foreign minister, and confidant to the North’s leader, Kim Jong Il, as Pyongyang’s.

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